This presentation will be about US officials creating substantial numbers of lawful channels for irregular migrants to cross the Southwest border, such as for asylum seekers. Michael Clemens estimate the effect of these lawful channels (at Ports of Entry) on unlawful border crossing (between Ports of Entry), using data on the full universe of 10,891,565 initially inadmissible migrants encountered there from October 2011 through July 2023. A ten percent expansion in lawful channels, after ten months, causes a three percent reduction in unlawful crossing. This deterrent effect explains 7–12 percent of the overall variance in unlawful crossings between 2011 and 2023, suggesting that pressure from unlawful border crossings is heightened by a lack of lawful channels as Ports of Entry.

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