Tim Dyson, London School of Economics & Political Science
Global Warming and the Demographic Future
The talk updates an assessment of future climate change undertaken c.20 years ago. Evasion and denial continue to affect the human response to global warming. Between 2000 and 2019 fossil fuel use rose by 45 per cent (partly due to population growth) and atmospheric CO2 rose from 370 to 411 ppm. Widely disregarded, the temperature increase appears to be accelerating. The talk explores the future through a demographic lens. It illustrates that seemingly distant dates are actually fairly close, and that during 2020-50 population growth will have a significant but diminishing influence on global CO2 emissions. However, a doubling of atmospheric CO2 seems likely before 2100. Relatedly, there is little chance of staying below 2oC. Partly for climate-related reasons, beyond 2050 world population growth may well be appreciably less than is projected.